Lectures & Debate

Europe collectively faces a binary choice. It can take the blue pill, chose to disregard reality and continue down the path of humiliation, becoming a playing ground for international powers while managing its own geopolitical decline. Or it can take the red pill, embrace reality and step up to regain agency over its own destiny. Europe faces an adversary that seeks domination in its desired sphere of interest, disregards international rules and institutions, uses naked force

Ukraine’s future will continue to loom large, but 2026 should be the year of real European geopolitics in relation to the US and China. 2025 is gone and the war in Ukraine has not ended by Trumpian decree, on Russia-friendly terms. That the continuation of bloodshed is probably the best bit of European news from last year tells one something about Europe’s current predicament. 2025 was Europe’s annus horribilis, exposing external dependencies and internal divisions alike in a

Ever since Donald Trump's re-election as US president, Europe has known that it must either support Ukraine alone or abandon it to its fate. It takes the comfort of the Brussels EU bubble to see a de facto confiscation of Russian assets from an international securities house that happens to be located in Belgium as a demonstration of European strength. European diplomacy is nearing its boiling point. While Donald Trump's America wants to force a quick peace in Ukraine, while

Brussels’ embrace of green planning has been outcompeted by Beijing’s industrial planning and by Washington’s dominance in hydrocarbons. Europe’s energy intensive industries face a Russian energy crunch, Chinese dumping and American tariffs, all on top of Europe self-enforced decarbonisation costs. ‘Enhancing the Union’s competitiveness, bolstering its resilience, and advancing the green transition are mutually reinforcing objectives that must be pursued together.’  Thus the

Illegal drones escalate Russia's scope and policy of intimidation, intended to divide or destabilize Europe in its collective resistance to Russian aggression and expansion. They force Europe either to react or to bow down to a creeping Taiwan scenario in which Russia can continue to interfere with impunity. In just a few weeks, the skies over Romania, Poland, Norway, Denmark, Latvia, Germany, Finland, and France have been disrupted by unidentified drones. The suspected geogr

While recognising battlefield realities, a genuine European peace would not reward but check Russian aggression while seeking to ensure the future security and prosperity of Ukraine. What conditions would this take? For Ukraine, as for Europe, the spectacle of the Trump-Putin bonhomie at the Alaska summit was repulsive. To see the president of the United States applaud a wanted war criminal, to see military aggression and occupation legitimised in style, was truly dishearteni